After the sharp rally in April, which saw gold break above $3,500 per troy ounce for the first time, the market has entered a phase of consolidation. As of now, XAU/USD is holding within the $3,285–$3,400 range, with the price most often stabilising around $3,350. Analysts emphasise that this is not a pullback but rather a pause, reflecting the uncertainty of the current macroeconomic agenda and geopolitical developments.
Despite a decline in speculative activity, central banks continue to accumulate gold at an aggressive pace. According to the World Gold Council, they purchased over 480 tonnes of the metal in H1 2025 – nearly half the record volume bought in 2023. The main buyers are China, Turkey, India, Kazakhstan, and several Middle Eastern countries seeking to reduce their dependence on the US dollar and hedge against global risks.
Against this backdrop, gold is once again seen as a universal, non-political asset. Demand is supported both by institutional regulators and retail investors concerned about inflation and currency stability. At the same time, rising US Treasury yields and a strong dollar are limiting the upside potential for XAU/USD.
Recent signals from the Federal Reserve have left markets uncertain. Hopes for policy easing in the second half of the year have weakened, further affecting investor sentiment. In this environment, the gold market is showing reduced volatility and entering a “wait-and-see” mode.
The $3,285-$3,400 range may persist through the end of summer. However, according to analysts, this calm could be temporary. A break above $3,400 combined with new catalysts – from dollar weakening to heightened geopolitical tensions – could trigger a fresh leg up. What remains solid is the so-called “fundamental demand”: institutional buying and consistent interest from Asian consumers during price pullbacks.
For private investors, the current price level may offer an attractive entry point into a defensive asset. This is particularly true given rising risks in equity markets, currency instability, and the first months of Donald Trump’s presidency, marked by bold statements towards the Fed and international economic partners. Any political crisis, escalation of trade wars, or conflict in the Middle East could quickly reignite bullish momentum in gold.
Experts highlights that the market’s current behaviour should not be seen as a sign of weakness, but rather a potential prelude to renewed momentum. Central bank strategies, with continued gold purchases at all-time highs, suggest that the metal has evolved from a hedging tool into a long-term investment in today’s new global reality.
