The fifth named tropical storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has now formed, as Erin has now been named. The US National Hurricane Center forecast cone suggests we could see hurricane Erin by Wednesday and a potential major hurricane Erin by this weekend, but with its exact direction of travel very uncertain at this stage.
Meteorologists and tropical forecasters had been watching tropical disturbance 97L closely over the weekend, as some forecast model runs had initially been suggesting a potential long-range threat to the United States from what has now been named tropical storm Erin.
Currently, the NHC states that tropical storm Erin has sustained winds of 45 mph and higher gusts, saying, “Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next several days.”
Tropical storm Erin is located approximately 280 miles WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands in the deep Atlantic at this time. The latest NHC forecast cone can be seen below.
The model runs have changed over the last twenty-four hours and are currently suggesting tropical storm Erin will make hurricane status and then curve towards the north. But it’s still a long way out and there is ample uncertainty in the model output, making forecasts challenging still.
At this stage, most of the forecast models suggest Erin will certainly intensify to hurricane strength over the coming days, while some suggest a major hurricane of Category 3 or greater by next weekend (as the NHC cone above shows at this time).
Beyond that, the eventual path of a hurricane Erin will depend on steering currents and the location of areas of high pressure, with model solutions ranging from a recurve a couple of hundred miles off the US coastline, to a very close encounter for Bermuda (something to watch closely for those on the island and the insurance, reinsurance and ILS industry there).
Only a handful of model runs we’ve seen now show a path moving west closer to the Caribbean, which might have proved a more threatening prospect for the United States. The number of models showing that type of solution has been reducing over the last couple of days, with a curve towards the north now more favoured.
It could be a few days before there is more certainty in the forecasts and so tropical storm Erin is certain to be closely watched by interests in the catastrophe bond, ILS and reinsurance sector as it develops this week.
This helpful graphic below, from Tomer Burg’s excellent website, provides a visual of the model spread across a number of products, which helps to demonstrate the level of uncertainty in the forecast for a future hurricane Erin at this time.
It’s far too early for any discussion of landfall threats at this stage, but Erin is (if nothing else) a first true sign of Atlantic tropical activity heating up, as many meteorologists and forecasters had been anticipating for this stage of August.
Track the 2025 Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season on our dedicated page and we’ll update you as new information emerges.
