With Americans having fewer children and the baby boomer cohort rapidly retiring, it has been immigrants who have been shoring up the U.S. workforce. According to the Migration Policy Institute, U.S. Census data show that – from 2000-2022 – the number of U.S.-born residents of prime working age (25-54) grew by just 2.9 million, while the number of prime-working-age immigrants (both documented and undocumented) rose by 7.7 million. During this same period, the 65+ population increased by 18 million.
The Elder Care Workforce
Immigrants have become especially important in elder care. According to KFF, immigrants make up 28 percent of the overall direct long-term care workforce (see Figure 1). Other studies report broadly similar estimates. As this chart shows, a majority of these workers are naturalized citizens, but many are non-citizens.
Limiting Immigration
A substantial number of non-citizen immigrants will soon lose their authorization to work as President Trump ends their protected status over the next several months. There are a few million immigrants with limited status, including asylum applicants, DACA holders, individuals with temporary protected status (including those from Haiti and Venezuela) and grants of parole (including immigrants from Afghanistan and Ukraine).
Immigrants without documentation also play a significant role in providing elder care. According to reports, while many of these individuals are afraid to go to work during the current immigration crackdown, most still do so since they need to support themselves and their families.
Just When We Need More Elder Care Workers
Limiting the number of potential care workers comes at a critical time as the baby boomers age. The oldest boomers will reach age 85, when the likelihood of needing assistance increases dramatically, in just six years. Due to this surge, and growing lifespans, the share of the age 65+ population that is over 85+ is projected to double – from about 10 to 20 percent – in the next two decades (see Figure 2).
In short, just as we need more people willing to take on the grueling job of providing hands-on care to those who cannot care for themselves, the Trump administration is making it more difficult for many of those who would provide such care to come to the United States or for those already here to stay in the workforce.
For more from Harry Margolis, check out his Risking Old Age in America blog and podcast. He also answers consumer estate planning questions at AskHarry.info. To stay current on the Squared Away blog, join our free email list. You’ll receive just one email each week.
